Will Houston outgrow Chicago and claim the number three spot?

Chicago, the Windy city has not been witnessing favorable winds recently. 

Chicago is one of the top twenty largest cities in America that has been posting a decline in its population. Families packing their belongings and loading them onto vehicles of movers and packers, is a common sight around the city. The people of the city are going to the winds never to return back.

Houston on the other hand, has been rejoicing with the surging population numbers. More people are moving to the city in search of better opportunities.

Why people are leaving Chicago?

Multiple factors have been behind the continuous decline in the city’s population. Chicago is one of the most expensive cities to live in due to its high taxes and costly housing. The city is still reeling and hasn’t fully recovered from the recession. 

The unemployment rate in the city is also rising leading to economic difficulties for people. The public schools are hampered by the lack of funds and are on the verge of financial crisis. People are leaving the city in search of brighter future for themselves and their children. The African-American population is one of the most prominent in moving away from the city.

Violence in the city has been another factor for driving people away. The crime rate in the city is escalating with the year 2016 witnessing 58 percent more homicides than the previous year of 2015. The month of August in 2016 had the highest number of violent crimes within the last two decades. The same can be attributed to the city’s gang culture which is rampant with over 100,000 gang members belonging to more than 60 gangs. Corruption is also said to be widespread in the city’s public departments.

The number of immigrants in the city is also declining gradually. Which formed a huge chunk of the population increase especially those from Mexico. With the government making the immigration norms more stringent, the number of people coming into the state and the country is declining.

What Are the Factors Driving the Growth Of Houston?

The state of Texas has an increasing number of oil and gas industries that are driving its economy to Houston. Which is generating more employment options for the people and giving them a better chance at sustainability. The housing in the city is much more affordable and generally comes with more land. The city has a lower population density with less crowded housing. The number of immigrants from Latin American countries and the Hispanic population in the city is also increasing with the availability of jobs. Frank Medina, owner of a Houston auto insurance agency says, "A lot of my clients that call me for quotes have an out of state license."

The Statistical Scenario and the Closing Gap

The city of Houston has been witnessing an increasing trend in its population over the past seven years consecutively. As per the US Census Bureau the population of the city was at 2,319,603 as of January 1, 2017 as compared to the 2,100,263 people the city housed in 2010.

US Census Bureau stated that the population of Chicago is estimated to have declined from 2,722,389 in 2014 to 2,720,546 in 2015. Although no numbers are out yet for 2016, the number of people leaving the city is expected to rise steeply. In 2010, Chicago was a home to 2,697,000 people approximately.

Comparing the stats of 2010 with today, Houston has already covered up almost half of the gap between these two in the last six years. With Houston having the second largest population increase across the country, and just being about 400,000 odd residents short than Chicago, the continuation of this trend could overtake Chicago and claim the number three spot in matters of population within the next decade or so.

The question of Houston overtaking Chicago and claiming the number three spot is no longer a question of ‘if’ but ‘when’. If the trend continues and there is no major reform implemented by the state of Chicago, Houston is going to be the clear winner.